Accuracy
68.7%
110K+ matches
CLV Edge
+19.2%
vs Pinnacle closing
Today
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Recent (30d)
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Track record
๐ŸŽพ Free During Roland Garros
ALL PREDICTIONS + MATCHUP DNA UNLOCKED ยท THROUGH JUNE 8
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Matchup DNA
Featured match
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โ€”%
SERVE RETURN FORM BP% ELO SURF
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Fatigue
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Momentum
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Win Probability Band
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Model IntelligenceFair vs implied
Metric
Model
Naive
Edge
Win prob
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Fair odds
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+CLV
Elo gap
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Not priced
Signal
Model Insights
From 110,000+ matches
34%
When Elo gap is under 100 points, upsets happen 34% of the time โ€” nearly 1 in 3.
32%
Grass produces more upsets than any surface โ€” 32% vs 27% upset rate on hard courts.
84%
Fatigued favourites (4+ recent matches) still win 84% โ€” momentum outweighs fatigue.
52.8%
Players hitting 16+ aces win just 52.8% โ€” big serving correlates with double fault risk.
Predictions
Updated daily at 7am ยท Free preview
DateMatchProbFairCLVSignal
Scheduleโ€”
Analysis
TENNIS ABSTRACT ยท 2 DAYS AGO
Surface Elo outperforms overall Elo on clay by 8.3%
New analysis across 40,000 clay matches shows surface-adjusted ratings reduce prediction error significantly versus general Elo ratings alone.
Model Research
HEAVY TOPSPIN ยท 5 DAYS AGO
The fatigue paradox: why rest doesn't help underdogs
Fatigued favourites win at higher rates across 29,000 matches โ€” momentum consistently outweighs physical wear in predictive models.
Upset Research
TENNIS ABSTRACT ยท 1 WEEK AGO
Break point conversion: skill or variance across 45,000 matches?
Players converting 70%+ of break points win 57.5% of matches โ€” regression analysis suggests half that edge is noise, not skill.
Data Analysis
HEAVY TOPSPIN ยท 2 WEEKS AGO
Why Challenger form predicts Tour results better than ranking
Surface-specific Challenger results predict Tour match outcomes 6.2% more accurately than ATP ranking in backtested data.
Performance Modeling
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